A research team at NASA has presented the principles of a prototype system to predict tsunamis that measures large terremototos quickly and accurately and get estimate the size of a subsequent tsunami.
The team, led by Y. Tony Song of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, used data in real-time earthquake of magnitude 8.8 in Richter scale in Chile last February to predict the size of the resulting tsunami. The measurement system combining regional data globables hundreds of GPS points, considering their positions in second, with a motion detection capability of even a few centimeters. The accuracy of GPS-based prediction was subsequently confirmed by measuring the height of the sea surface by satellite.
Differences with previous systems
The prediction method Song, published in 2007 and recently confirmed in a new study estimates the energy an earthquake under the sea transfers to the ocean to cause a tsunami, and is based on data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter and measurements of the slope. For its part, the tsunami warning systems rely mainly on conventional location, depth and magnitude of the earthquake, although history shows the lack of reliability of the scale as an indicator of a subsequent tsunami, reports the JPL laboratory.
Moreover, previous models assumed that detection of tsunami force is determined by the amount of seafloor shifted vertically, while Song theory explains that the horizontal movements of the continental slope failure also contribute to determine the strength, transmitting kinetic energy to the ocean.
In the case of the earthquake in Chile, Song's team correctly predicted that this quake, the fifth strongest that has been registered by measuring devices, would lead to a tsunami with almost no significant effects in the Pacific.
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