Countdown to the end of the oil era

The decline of the oil industry could be closer than expected. The Council of Energy Research in the UK, in a study from 500 papers on the subject, asserts that there is "significant risk" that the production reaches its maximum in 2020, when it would begin its decline.

The authors of this study warn that most governments are not sufficiently aware of the magnitude of the problem. The last existing estimate, conducted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), noted that most experts place the output ceiling ten years later, in 2030.

However, the report of the British Research Council describes this forecast "optimistic at best." He also warns that given the difficulty of the search process for alternative energy sources, 2030 is not far.

The study also raises the possibility that more than two thirds of production capacity have to be replaced for the same year, claiming that the ten largest oilfields in the world have begun to decline in terms of production.
International Debate

The subject is under a stormy debate. On the one hand those who say that global reserves have already reached the zenith and we are not sufficiently prepared for the crisis that hit the economy in coming years. In addition, energy companies and analysts who deny that stocks are running low.

The study authors say it is difficult to prove what the correct posture and that currently there is no accurate method for measuring the reserves. The problems stem from "inconsistent definitions, lack of reliable data and the absence of third party review and the resulting insecurity figures on these data." The resulting confusion creates an obvious risk for governments that can not be being properly advised on this matter.

Part of the difficulties come from the barriers imposed by some countries and companies that refuse to disclose the entirety of its reserves relying on the economic implications of disclosing this information. The report adds that the greatest difficulties are in OPEC countries.