Future deserts on Earth

The Mediterranean is one of the areas most likely to become a desert, a danger ahead for 38% of the land surface. The alarming conclusion belongs to a Spanish research study published in International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment '.

The scientists measured the impact of human activity in their environment through a method known as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and a geographic information system (GIS, its acronym in English). For the first time, included indicators of desertification and classified 15 natural areas according to their degree of aridity.
Of the areas studied, eight were listed as areas at risk of desertification, which represents 38% of the Earth's surface.

"In the case of Spain, the Jucar basin, the Segura and the southeastern Ebro are some of the areas most at risk of desertification due to climatic conditions," said Montserrat Núñez, lead author of the study.
Overall, North Africa, Middle East, Australia, southwest China and western South America are the most threatened areas. On a scale of 1 to 10, these subtropical desert regions have a risk of desertification of 7.6, according to this research. In the case of the Mediterranean, the risk would be 6.3 out of 10. Marine areas and grasslands were a 4 on this scale.

The overexploitation of aquifers, aridity, erosion and fire risk are primarily responsible for desertification. "The unsustainable use can lead to soil degradation. If it occurs in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid, like Spain, the degradation is called desertification and the effects may be irreversible, because they create totally unproductive areas," said Nunez.

The first part of the study, the scientists who worked at the Technological University of Mendoza (Argentina) and the Autonomous University of Barcelona, has focused on developing the research method, which can also compare the impact of a single human activity different places. Currently being implemented in Argentina and Spain.